* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 08/01/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 28 30 34 39 44 47 47 44 39 36 34 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 28 30 34 39 44 47 47 44 39 36 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 27 28 29 28 26 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 17 19 20 20 16 14 8 15 24 42 42 42 45 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 3 2 2 0 6 3 3 -1 -3 -13 -3 1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 80 74 64 63 56 52 26 40 66 19 61 102 86 64 46 54 60 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 154 153 152 151 153 154 153 154 155 155 150 148 146 153 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 55 51 51 46 46 50 59 65 71 73 74 68 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 9 10 13 37 27 22 28 16 -11 35 46 46 29 12 -8 200 MB DIV 45 50 32 49 48 99 99 72 68 56 21 41 74 99 105 90 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 5 8 12 7 2 -6 -12 LAND (KM) 1955 2010 2049 2103 2159 2244 2275 2213 2044 1844 1693 1671 1765 1824 1771 1593 1358 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.3 11.7 11.2 11.2 11.7 12.3 12.4 11.6 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.5 126.9 127.3 127.8 128.3 128.2 127.4 125.7 123.6 121.6 120.4 119.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 5 5 3 2 6 11 11 8 7 8 6 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 19 20 21 21 19 18 18 20 24 33 34 29 23 10 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 26. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. 45. 46. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -9. -12. -12. -13. -16. -21. -26. -28. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 22. 19. 14. 11. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 125.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 08/01/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.67 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.2% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0% 3.2% 2.3% 0% 0% 2.2% 0% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 08/01/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##