* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 08/01/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 31 35 40 45 49 51 54 52 50 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 31 35 40 45 49 51 54 52 50 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 30 31 33 35 35 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 17 16 20 19 14 19 8 9 8 12 28 34 27 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 5 2 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 -8 -1 3 3 SHEAR DIR 89 78 72 61 60 56 50 30 54 30 34 86 116 110 90 72 60 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.6 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 152 153 153 151 152 155 151 156 155 154 153 154 153 154 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 56 58 59 56 51 49 49 51 60 67 72 70 70 74 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 5 2 10 11 22 29 35 69 70 -3 20 36 52 75 85 67 200 MB DIV 41 45 46 35 42 40 119 76 50 88 31 40 72 49 114 111 66 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 0 1 5 4 9 6 -8 LAND (KM) 1886 1939 1978 2010 2056 2143 2189 2150 2004 1753 1539 1437 1483 1593 1687 1648 1431 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.3 11.9 11.8 12.2 13.2 14.1 14.4 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.1 125.7 126.2 126.5 126.9 127.6 127.8 127.2 125.7 123.4 121.4 120.3 120.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 3 1 5 11 12 8 3 5 6 7 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 20 19 19 21 21 19 19 17 33 48 44 30 34 35 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. 41. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 29. 27. 25. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 125.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 08/01/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.27 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.77 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.5% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 4.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% SDCON: 0% 4.7% 2.9% .5% 0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 08/01/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##