* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 07/31/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 23 25 33 39 45 47 50 50 49 50 51 50 51 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 23 25 33 39 45 47 50 50 49 50 51 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 15 13 13 11 14 18 14 15 14 15 22 14 15 14 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -1 1 2 2 1 1 2 4 5 2 -1 -1 2 8 SHEAR DIR 108 118 111 98 90 76 66 71 44 66 44 29 56 77 108 109 99 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.8 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 153 153 155 156 155 152 154 159 158 154 154 149 151 157 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 60 58 59 53 52 46 49 53 62 70 75 77 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 6 9 8 8 8 9 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 9 10 14 21 28 37 22 29 64 70 65 82 33 65 106 200 MB DIV 51 26 13 11 25 27 41 97 85 67 37 9 18 1 63 64 112 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 5 9 11 0 0 0 7 LAND (KM) 1720 1748 1785 1839 1885 1979 2097 2206 2275 2261 2150 1901 1581 1370 1286 1299 1403 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.9 12.3 11.9 11.9 12.2 13.0 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.4 123.8 124.3 124.9 125.5 126.5 127.6 128.4 128.9 128.7 127.6 125.2 122.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 5 5 6 4 1 3 9 14 14 6 2 3 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 21 25 28 22 22 25 24 24 24 26 20 36 27 28 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 38. 42. 44. 44. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 4. 3. 4. 1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 13. 19. 25. 27. 30. 30. 29. 30. 31. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.6 123.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 07/31/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% .3% .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% .4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 07/31/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##