* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 07/31/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 38 43 49 54 56 57 58 59 58 57 55 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 38 43 49 54 56 57 58 59 58 57 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 35 37 38 39 41 42 43 43 43 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 10 10 12 9 11 10 10 14 13 12 8 18 26 29 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 2 5 0 2 0 0 3 4 4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 103 101 101 94 101 83 91 73 44 49 46 10 6 40 73 94 116 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.8 29.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 151 150 147 151 153 151 148 150 155 157 155 156 148 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 67 70 67 65 63 59 55 49 46 46 48 50 52 58 63 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 7 17 14 18 21 26 33 47 41 46 34 4 66 82 63 29 200 MB DIV 62 63 60 62 55 34 34 78 76 63 66 88 84 9 23 -6 39 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 4 11 9 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1654 1656 1665 1691 1710 1776 1855 1949 2084 2199 2253 2230 2125 1940 1650 1345 1181 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.0 13.4 12.8 12.5 12.6 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.1 122.5 123.0 123.5 124.6 125.8 126.8 128.0 128.9 129.3 129.1 128.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 4 1 3 7 13 16 11 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 21 19 18 20 28 19 18 20 19 19 20 24 18 42 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 18. 24. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 33. 32. 30. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 121.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 07/31/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.60 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.46 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 19.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 8.9% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5% 1.7% 1.3% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 10.8% 6.8% 0.5% 0.2% 8.0% 6.8% 1.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: .7% 6.9% 4.4% .7% .1% 4.0% 3.9% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 07/31/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##