* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952024 07/30/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 42 47 50 53 55 54 55 54 54 53 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 42 47 50 53 55 54 55 54 54 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 33 34 35 36 38 39 40 41 41 40 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 9 9 12 13 12 16 14 18 16 19 14 29 29 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 -2 4 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 137 133 104 105 102 94 84 71 64 56 32 31 5 19 62 78 74 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.2 28.7 29.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 152 151 151 151 153 154 153 152 150 152 158 154 159 145 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 70 66 63 56 54 47 49 50 52 54 61 65 71 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -12 6 12 15 23 21 26 27 37 26 33 73 70 54 99 117 200 MB DIV 79 79 76 62 51 45 47 52 57 65 70 58 103 45 1 50 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 5 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1670 1676 1700 1717 1735 1792 1869 1964 2089 2218 2326 2347 2278 2090 1753 1387 1144 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.1 12.4 11.8 11.8 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.0 122.5 123.0 123.5 124.5 125.5 126.6 127.7 128.7 129.5 129.8 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 4 1 6 13 18 15 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 22 20 19 21 27 20 19 20 18 17 19 20 19 33 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 36. 39. 41. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -8. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 29. 30. 29. 29. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 121.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952024 INVEST 07/30/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.66 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.50 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 7.4% 3.2% 1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 1.6% 3.7% Bayesian: 3.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 9.8% 6.7% 0.5% 0.1% 7.6% 6.8% 1.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952024 INVEST 07/30/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##