* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 11/06/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 31 31 33 39 45 48 50 50 51 53 53 51 49 46 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 31 31 33 39 45 48 50 50 51 53 53 51 49 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 34 33 34 35 37 38 39 37 35 33 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 12 13 11 6 9 12 8 8 12 14 10 10 13 16 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 4 4 5 -2 -5 -4 3 6 4 3 4 3 4 3 SHEAR DIR 149 135 153 160 165 145 82 90 58 98 138 157 143 185 239 199 194 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 150 151 152 152 151 152 153 154 156 153 151 148 146 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 52 53 57 59 61 65 65 65 62 58 54 50 48 45 45 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -40 -41 -35 -24 -6 16 39 41 42 41 54 35 49 55 58 58 200 MB DIV -34 -2 23 28 27 58 1 10 38 77 102 109 19 -18 3 25 30 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 1 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 2 6 LAND (KM) 666 626 597 582 587 627 683 719 746 787 814 830 877 940 888 776 629 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.5 13.2 13.0 12.9 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.2 106.0 105.9 106.0 106.4 106.9 107.2 107.5 108.0 108.8 109.8 111.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 0 2 3 2 1 2 3 5 6 7 7 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 33 33 33 33 32 31 30 29 27 25 22 19 16 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. 0. 4. 9. 13. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 9. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. 23. 23. 21. 19. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 106.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 11/06/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.59 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 16.7% 13.8% 11.4% 0.0% 19.5% 17.3% 15.7% Logistic: 2.4% 8.3% 4.3% 1.5% 0.6% 1.9% 1.2% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.5% 6.0% 4.3% 0.2% 7.1% 6.2% 6.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.0% 4.7% 3.5% 2.6% .1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 11/06/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##