* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 11/06/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 21 20 20 24 28 32 35 37 39 39 41 42 43 42 V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 21 20 20 24 28 32 35 37 39 39 41 42 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 21 20 19 19 19 20 21 22 22 21 20 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 10 12 13 11 7 10 4 9 15 12 9 9 4 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -5 0 1 2 0 -2 -1 1 2 5 3 -3 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 180 175 159 155 162 154 140 119 124 72 108 160 180 215 258 217 158 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 154 153 152 152 152 152 152 153 153 156 156 152 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 53 55 57 62 62 59 55 52 51 50 48 50 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -19 -22 -30 -33 -21 0 32 53 50 42 42 51 41 52 50 47 200 MB DIV -8 -43 -40 -1 30 33 46 32 47 54 67 69 79 0 -31 -40 12 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 3 1 3 1 LAND (KM) 740 676 621 572 542 513 537 562 577 598 630 675 746 830 917 993 1032 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 106.6 106.3 105.9 105.7 105.5 105.8 106.1 106.2 106.4 106.8 107.5 108.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 2 0 2 2 1 2 2 4 6 6 4 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 29 32 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 33 33 31 28 25 23 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. 0. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 34. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -9. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 106.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 11/06/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.78 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.9% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 5.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.8% 4.6% 0.2% 0.1% 5.8% 5.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: .1% 3.4% 2.3% .1% 0% 2.9% 2.6% .6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 11/06/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##