* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 11/05/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 32 35 36 38 41 41 42 44 47 50 52 53 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 32 35 36 38 41 41 42 44 47 50 52 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 30 29 29 28 27 28 29 31 33 36 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 8 9 9 12 20 19 16 14 10 11 3 6 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -3 -4 -4 0 -5 -5 -7 -5 -3 -2 3 2 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 94 96 104 142 154 143 129 115 111 87 86 67 75 132 36 72 100 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 147 148 150 151 150 150 149 145 144 143 143 143 142 142 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 50 50 51 58 61 66 65 67 65 68 63 63 64 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 -6 -17 -23 -35 -40 -13 6 16 21 26 29 15 11 26 19 200 MB DIV -53 -66 -43 -30 -46 -20 16 38 28 -16 20 4 45 70 59 16 23 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 937 895 859 814 770 695 671 708 786 850 875 881 894 933 978 1022 1018 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.8 12.9 12.5 11.9 11.4 11.2 11.1 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 107.8 107.5 107.2 106.9 106.4 106.1 106.0 106.4 106.7 106.8 106.7 106.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 1 3 4 2 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 26 28 30 30 28 25 22 21 21 20 18 18 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 11. 12. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 108.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 11/05/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -47.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: .1% 1.7% .7% .5% 0% 0% .5% .2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 11/05/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##