* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 11/05/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 33 35 35 36 36 36 35 37 39 42 43 44 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 33 35 35 36 36 36 35 37 39 42 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 26 25 23 22 22 23 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 4 9 12 15 21 23 20 21 14 14 14 11 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 0 -4 -7 -1 -2 -6 -5 -4 1 0 0 2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 89 105 102 104 136 125 126 119 100 79 79 70 66 80 32 79 89 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 144 147 150 150 149 147 143 141 139 139 139 139 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -53.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 49 49 50 56 62 67 68 71 71 71 68 68 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 4 3 -2 -6 -14 -27 -38 -21 -5 6 13 15 25 27 23 12 18 200 MB DIV -46 -62 -61 -38 -27 -46 10 4 47 24 15 26 27 56 87 49 16 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 4 5 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 991 958 931 895 859 770 726 747 838 943 1009 1043 1066 1079 1093 1073 1043 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.3 12.5 12.2 11.4 10.5 9.9 9.5 9.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.8 108.4 108.1 107.8 107.5 106.9 106.4 106.2 106.4 106.7 106.8 106.6 106.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 4 2 3 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 22 23 24 28 29 27 22 18 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 33. 33. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -15. -15. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 108.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 11/05/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -46.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 4.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: .1% 1.7% .7% .5% 0% 0% .5% .7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 11/05/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##