* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 11/02/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 31 37 44 45 42 41 41 43 43 43 43 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 31 37 44 45 42 41 41 43 43 43 43 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 34 34 34 34 33 32 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 12 11 5 2 2 2 7 8 12 15 18 17 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -7 -7 -6 -3 -3 0 -3 -4 -1 -1 -4 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 110 125 123 129 128 130 65 94 206 213 207 180 140 133 110 99 79 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 142 143 145 147 148 150 153 154 152 151 150 147 144 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 61 58 58 52 51 50 52 52 56 54 58 59 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -23 -27 -22 -11 3 10 19 8 -10 -20 -18 -17 -3 0 8 11 200 MB DIV 83 79 57 25 -5 -22 -31 -20 -10 -2 7 23 33 37 30 23 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 0 3 6 3 3 2 LAND (KM) 1057 1060 1066 1066 1060 1027 972 900 798 681 587 559 593 669 774 855 927 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.4 13.1 13.6 13.6 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.4 110.6 110.7 110.7 110.6 110.2 109.4 108.5 107.6 106.7 105.8 105.1 104.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 0 0 1 3 4 5 6 5 4 2 3 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 22 22 23 23 23 24 28 32 33 33 31 27 22 19 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. 35. 36. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 20. 17. 16. 16. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 110.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 11/02/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.77 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 19.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 5.3% 2.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 8.4% 5.8% 0.2% 0.4% 6.7% 6.5% 1.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 11/02/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##