* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 09/12/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 26 31 32 33 30 29 28 31 35 37 38 36 36 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 26 31 32 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 12 13 13 12 17 18 16 18 21 25 33 39 47 49 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 1 2 1 0 2 1 2 -1 1 -1 1 0 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 71 65 72 81 96 131 185 226 242 272 259 260 268 278 285 293 303 SST (C) 31.0 30.9 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.3 31.1 31.6 30.0 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 28.0 29.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 170 171 168 170 170 162 143 139 139 139 140 144 164 143 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.7 -49.7 -49.4 -49.6 -49.4 -49.4 -49.6 -49.6 -49.8 -49.8 -50.1 -50.3 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 7 7 6 8 6 8 8 10 10 11 9 9 6 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 65 64 62 55 55 50 50 49 44 40 37 38 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 13 14 16 13 12 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 41 22 17 21 12 20 18 26 10 18 7 23 -1 -14 -30 -16 200 MB DIV 43 20 4 9 8 46 17 0 20 -14 21 17 14 -1 -6 -18 -37 700-850 TADV -4 -3 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 5 6 17 14 21 LAND (KM) 289 305 301 299 313 131 37 48 -37 -124 -217 -298 -394 -510 -633 -598 -595 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.2 22.0 23.6 24.9 25.6 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.7 108.1 108.4 108.7 109.2 109.1 108.8 108.4 107.7 106.8 106.1 105.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 9 8 6 3 4 4 4 5 8 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 29 26 25 26 20 25 32 20 7 3 2 2 2 2 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -2. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 4. -4. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. -3. -4. -11. -14. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -4. 1. 2. 3. 0. -1. -2. 1. 5. 7. 8. 6. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.0 107.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 09/12/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.28 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.0% 10.8% 8.8% 0.0% 17.2% 16.9% 15.8% Logistic: 0.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.0% 3.7% 3.0% 0.0% 5.8% 5.7% 5.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: .9% 3.0% 2.3% 1.5% 0% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 09/12/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##