* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 09/12/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 34 37 43 47 46 40 34 30 33 36 38 38 35 33 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 34 37 43 47 45 39 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 38 38 37 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 14 11 14 10 14 17 19 24 25 29 36 45 51 50 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 0 -1 0 -2 2 4 1 0 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 84 72 70 79 97 118 167 239 236 257 265 261 264 281 296 308 313 SST (C) 31.1 31.1 30.9 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.3 31.4 31.6 29.8 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 29.3 29.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 171 171 168 170 169 161 144 141 141 140 158 158 141 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.8 -50.0 -49.7 -49.4 -49.8 -49.5 -49.6 -49.3 -50.0 -49.9 -50.1 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 6 7 5 7 5 9 7 11 9 11 7 10 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 64 64 64 59 55 54 50 51 49 46 40 38 36 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 15 14 12 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 44 44 33 24 18 21 20 27 21 19 15 9 -10 -23 -37 -31 200 MB DIV 62 44 33 26 33 24 52 0 13 -2 -8 14 -8 -11 -11 -37 -35 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 3 3 4 8 25 18 40 LAND (KM) 253 265 275 278 282 221 18 62 22 -52 -161 -300 -434 -591 -550 -502 -500 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.7 21.1 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.2 26.9 27.4 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.1 107.5 107.9 108.3 109.2 109.7 109.6 109.3 108.8 107.7 106.4 105.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 7 4 5 6 6 7 8 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 38 33 28 25 24 25 19 28 32 19 3 5 2 2 4 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -5. -5. -3. 1. 2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 3. -6. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 7. 13. 17. 16. 10. 4. 0. 3. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.8 106.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 09/12/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.29 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 20.7% 15.4% 12.6% 0.0% 21.9% 20.7% 27.2% Logistic: 0.6% 4.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 9.5% 5.6% 4.4% 0.0% 7.6% 7.4% 9.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% SDCON: 2.1% 7.2% 3.8% 2.7% 0% 4.3% 4.7% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 09/12/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##