* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 09/11/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 30 32 35 40 42 42 31 29 30 34 36 37 36 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 30 32 35 40 42 39 28 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 36 36 35 33 31 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 15 11 9 13 12 13 13 14 21 23 29 36 47 48 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 0 0 -1 -2 1 2 4 0 2 -1 0 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 87 85 86 84 90 117 130 201 241 236 264 258 259 274 286 298 296 SST (C) 31.1 31.1 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.9 29.8 29.5 31.0 31.9 30.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 28.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 169 170 170 170 162 158 169 169 166 142 140 140 139 152 164 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.7 -49.9 -50.1 -49.9 -49.7 -49.5 -49.6 -49.3 -49.5 -49.8 -49.9 -50.2 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 7 6 5 6 5 7 8 10 10 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 64 61 60 56 51 51 48 49 48 46 43 42 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 14 14 12 11 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 45 48 46 30 36 31 23 22 25 17 12 5 20 -12 -14 -14 200 MB DIV 43 51 45 31 26 28 44 -3 -16 14 -5 10 -16 14 -3 -11 -27 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 2 0 0 5 4 2 6 8 11 12 LAND (KM) 214 236 245 269 299 254 96 1 41 73 -45 -175 -305 -438 -571 -426 -361 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.5 20.7 22.1 23.5 24.7 25.3 26.0 26.4 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.9 107.3 107.8 108.4 109.5 110.3 110.3 110.2 109.7 108.8 107.3 106.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 5 4 7 7 7 6 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 38 32 27 25 25 28 17 12 25 32 23 5 2 2 6 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. 0. 3. 5. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 3. -4. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 12. 12. 1. -1. -0. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.0 106.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 09/11/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.33 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 18.3% 14.3% 11.9% 0.0% 21.1% 20.2% 21.8% Logistic: 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.9% 4.9% 4.0% 0.0% 7.1% 6.8% 7.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 09/11/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##