* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 07/24/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 29 33 35 35 34 33 32 30 27 24 22 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 29 33 35 35 34 33 32 30 27 24 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 10 10 6 5 6 4 8 13 16 20 27 29 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 0 0 -1 1 0 1 -1 0 0 -1 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 51 57 64 79 84 60 51 327 300 285 270 274 253 255 250 253 288 SST (C) 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.2 27.4 26.8 26.4 25.7 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.9 25.6 25.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 152 151 148 146 147 138 132 127 120 124 122 119 121 118 121 127 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 70 68 67 65 62 61 59 58 57 54 49 48 47 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 1 -3 -2 -5 1 -14 -11 -19 -31 -25 -26 -20 -25 -11 -6 1 200 MB DIV 45 20 14 20 26 -10 -2 -5 -23 -6 0 -5 -21 0 -35 -41 -54 700-850 TADV -7 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 4 2 3 4 3 2 1 1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 606 655 703 679 703 812 953 1090 1230 1342 1436 1546 1659 1797 1937 2073 2233 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.3 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.2 111.2 112.3 113.5 115.8 118.1 120.3 122.3 124.1 125.6 127.0 128.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 15 18 13 10 10 4 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 22. 22. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.6 109.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 07/24/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.58 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.9% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 6.0% 6.1% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 07/24/24 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING