* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 07/23/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 35 40 45 45 44 43 42 41 39 38 37 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 35 40 45 45 44 43 42 41 39 38 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 32 32 31 29 27 26 24 21 18 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 9 9 11 9 4 2 7 9 14 18 17 23 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 0 -1 0 -4 -1 0 -4 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 61 65 63 66 83 99 116 158 240 232 274 257 272 256 254 249 254 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.2 28.4 28.1 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.3 26.5 26.6 27.5 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 157 154 154 147 149 146 136 135 131 124 127 128 138 139 136 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 76 72 72 71 68 67 65 62 61 59 56 56 54 51 48 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 8 12 7 0 3 -6 -14 -24 -41 -37 -37 -21 -14 -9 2 200 MB DIV 61 55 35 17 22 8 17 -6 0 -14 -17 15 22 -11 -22 -46 -38 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 -4 -1 -3 -1 -3 4 0 1 2 2 2 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 604 626 652 722 776 786 889 1028 1151 1278 1372 1443 1542 1658 1827 2013 2232 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 108.3 109.3 110.5 111.6 113.8 116.1 118.3 120.3 122.0 123.5 124.6 125.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 9 8 6 5 5 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 23 15 22 12 12 10 3 3 3 1 2 1 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 20. 19. 18. 17. 16. 14. 13. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 107.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 07/23/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.62 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.4% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 20.7% 19.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 13.0% 5.6% 2.9% 0.6% 3.0% 5.8% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 5.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 13.3% 7.5% 1.0% 0.2% 8.0% 8.5% 2.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.1% 7.6% 4.7% 1.0% .1% 4.0% 4.2% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 07/23/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##