* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922024 11/01/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 27 26 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 26 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 1 5 9 16 21 24 24 29 25 15 4 10 8 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 5 5 5 0 -3 -2 -2 -6 -3 0 5 0 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 107 146 218 220 225 227 238 251 263 259 282 291 237 211 199 159 102 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 140 140 141 140 140 143 146 147 146 148 148 146 144 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 58 55 54 49 48 44 43 39 45 47 50 45 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -28 -16 -11 -6 -2 -11 -6 -13 -5 1 19 19 8 -17 -13 -7 200 MB DIV 25 -9 -31 -34 -46 -15 2 20 -11 -4 27 11 7 7 -1 -7 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 2 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2267 2299 2323 2331 2336 2356 2384 2413 2453 2517 2546 2502 2394 2258 2140 2067 2105 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.5 10.9 10.3 9.9 9.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.1 128.6 129.0 129.2 129.4 129.8 130.3 130.7 130.9 131.1 130.8 129.8 128.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 4 7 8 7 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 11 12 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 38. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -13. -17. -19. -18. -16. -13. -10. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -11. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -14. -20. -23. -21. -15. -10. -6. -4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 128.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922024 INVEST 11/01/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.54 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.07 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.71 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.4% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 29.4% 19.5% 4.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 15.0% 9.7% 1.4% 0.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% SDCON: 1.4% 8.5% 5.3% .7% .2% 1.9% 0% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922024 INVEST 11/01/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##