* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922024 11/01/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 26 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 26 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 25 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 3 6 13 19 17 21 27 26 18 13 6 6 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 6 7 3 1 -1 -4 -8 -7 -3 1 1 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 97 96 110 149 196 222 238 252 265 253 265 306 319 311 292 283 49 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 144 143 142 142 143 146 149 150 147 145 144 145 145 145 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 60 58 56 54 50 48 44 41 43 44 48 49 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -29 -30 -15 -10 1 -4 -13 -17 -13 -7 -9 0 -8 -20 -22 -8 200 MB DIV 45 2 -23 -35 -26 -37 2 13 -25 -36 -14 -18 17 49 67 48 19 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2236 2267 2299 2322 2338 2355 2384 2430 2484 2558 2636 2661 2625 2518 2403 2293 2255 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.0 10.7 10.0 9.0 8.2 7.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.1 128.5 128.8 129.0 129.3 129.6 130.0 130.4 130.6 130.6 130.1 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 3 5 5 5 4 5 6 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 16 24 26 22 19 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 32. 36. 38. 40. 41. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -16. -18. -19. -16. -13. -10. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -19. -19. -14. -7. -4. -2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 127.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922024 INVEST 11/01/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.53 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.69 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 22.8% 12.8% 3.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 12.6% 7.4% 1.1% 0.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: .6% 6.8% 4.2% .5% .1% 1.8% 0% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922024 INVEST 11/01/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##