* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922024 11/01/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 25 25 23 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 25 25 23 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 25 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 8 14 16 16 18 15 8 7 9 10 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 2 5 3 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -5 -2 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 83 111 123 120 150 195 225 230 252 267 271 287 336 3 52 82 100 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 142 143 142 141 142 143 144 146 147 147 144 144 141 139 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 55 55 52 50 51 47 44 40 40 45 49 55 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -23 -18 -13 -8 2 1 -3 -10 -14 -5 9 5 9 -2 -13 -28 200 MB DIV 54 48 26 -3 -14 -22 -48 -18 7 7 -26 -4 6 11 12 34 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 1 2 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 2113 2135 2150 2174 2181 2197 2181 2182 2190 2216 2259 2301 2296 2246 2168 2105 2134 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.2 10.7 10.0 9.1 8.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.3 126.8 127.0 127.2 127.3 127.5 127.3 127.2 127.1 126.9 126.7 126.2 125.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 2 2 1 0 1 1 2 3 4 6 6 5 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 12 20 32 37 33 30 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. 38. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -6. -2. 2. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 126.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922024 INVEST 11/01/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.57 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.84 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.89 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 5.5% 3.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.6% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 4.2% 4.0% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: .1% 4.3% 2.7% .1% 0% 2.1% 2.0% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922024 INVEST 11/01/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##