* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922024 08/25/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 48 47 47 44 40 35 30 25 22 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 48 47 47 44 40 35 30 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 30 30 28 25 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 5 6 5 6 8 11 7 12 13 10 14 19 15 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 2 2 1 0 0 -1 5 1 4 6 9 5 10 12 10 SHEAR DIR 27 26 19 353 2 333 307 315 233 257 251 250 207 231 232 224 209 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.7 27.2 26.1 26.1 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.6 25.5 24.7 24.1 23.9 23.9 24.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 141 136 125 125 130 125 120 119 117 109 102 100 100 101 102 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 66 65 61 61 59 56 51 49 47 45 46 46 43 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 15 15 16 17 17 19 18 18 17 15 13 11 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 -1 4 1 -16 -16 -17 -11 -21 -23 -27 -32 -48 -63 -73 -87 200 MB DIV 21 35 28 25 32 20 16 0 31 27 41 16 -4 0 -16 -3 2 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 3 3 1 6 0 3 3 9 LAND (KM) 1167 1231 1300 1366 1439 1566 1697 1839 1985 2114 2050 1902 1768 1658 1554 1464 1390 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.8 120.9 122.0 123.1 125.4 127.7 129.8 131.8 133.5 135.2 136.6 137.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 23 10 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 14. 12. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 17. 17. 14. 10. 5. 0. -5. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 118.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922024 INVEST 08/25/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.62 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.55 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.96 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.3% 10.4% 8.2% 0.0% 14.1% 14.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.4% 3.9% 2.9% 0.0% 5.1% 5.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.6% 4.7% 2.9% 1.9% 0% 2.5% 3.1% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922024 INVEST 08/25/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##