* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922024 08/24/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 33 35 37 41 46 48 50 48 43 39 37 37 34 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 33 35 37 41 46 48 50 48 43 39 37 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 30 30 29 28 26 23 21 19 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 8 9 7 3 8 9 12 9 8 11 13 10 12 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 1 2 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 0 8 2 5 3 SHEAR DIR 24 16 5 357 358 342 303 297 281 268 244 216 241 228 231 264 302 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.9 25.8 26.5 25.4 25.6 25.7 24.6 24.9 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 145 142 137 134 122 130 118 120 120 108 111 115 115 115 113 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 67 67 67 67 64 62 60 59 55 54 52 49 47 44 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 14 15 15 17 18 20 21 20 19 18 15 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 9 6 4 5 0 4 -7 -2 10 17 21 12 -3 -2 -15 -18 -35 200 MB DIV -3 1 20 27 25 21 41 32 33 32 32 52 43 -2 -4 -10 -10 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 -5 -2 -1 2 5 1 2 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1009 1030 1074 1140 1195 1338 1496 1667 1848 2054 2051 1831 1663 1517 1402 1286 1160 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.8 117.7 118.8 119.9 122.3 125.0 127.7 130.3 132.9 135.2 137.3 138.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 13 13 13 12 12 10 8 8 5 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 20 18 13 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. 18. 16. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 18. 20. 18. 13. 9. 7. 7. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 116.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922024 INVEST 08/24/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 17.6% 12.3% 9.4% 0.0% 16.7% 16.9% 12.5% Logistic: 0.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.4% 4.2% 3.2% 0.0% 5.8% 5.7% 4.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.3% 4.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0% 3.4% 3.3% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922024 INVEST 08/24/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##