* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922024 08/22/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 49 60 70 79 86 89 88 87 87 86 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 49 60 70 79 86 89 88 87 87 86 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 42 48 55 61 65 68 68 65 58 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 11 10 5 4 9 12 13 12 13 11 3 10 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -3 -1 1 2 1 0 0 -2 0 0 2 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 43 52 51 50 64 45 54 54 51 67 47 20 339 300 272 248 239 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.3 26.5 25.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 153 151 146 145 147 147 149 147 143 138 136 136 128 114 104 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 80 77 76 77 77 74 74 73 72 71 70 67 68 68 63 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 13 15 15 18 20 24 27 29 29 31 33 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -3 -2 0 4 10 0 12 6 8 2 -5 -7 -2 -5 12 23 200 MB DIV 29 -12 -21 -22 -23 -8 -4 66 94 117 118 100 82 74 31 28 26 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -7 -7 -6 -9 1 9 9 11 5 LAND (KM) 890 948 991 1046 1092 1188 1275 1376 1530 1638 1745 1818 1844 1858 1872 1890 1912 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.7 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.3 113.1 114.0 114.8 116.4 117.9 119.3 121.0 122.6 124.3 125.8 127.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 19 40 39 25 16 16 16 16 13 11 7 6 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 35. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 21. 20. 20. 19. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 24. 35. 45. 54. 61. 64. 63. 62. 62. 61. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 111.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922024 INVEST 08/22/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.66 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.81 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.4% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.7% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922024 INVEST 08/22/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##