* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922024 07/18/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 15 18 27 30 34 33 41 47 46 37 35 32 33 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 6 5 3 5 2 0 -1 -7 -13 -3 -4 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 235 248 248 242 244 242 232 240 241 245 240 237 238 233 235 243 250 SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.7 26.0 25.9 24.7 23.9 23.1 22.7 22.9 23.0 23.2 23.1 23.7 23.8 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 118 121 121 109 101 93 88 90 91 93 93 99 99 103 103 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.5 -54.3 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 43 42 42 43 42 43 43 42 41 36 33 31 26 24 22 21 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 10 5 2 5 9 4 -11 -55 -80 -91 -86 -55 -33 -19 -7 8 200 MB DIV -17 -9 -17 -22 -20 1 -35 -24 -22 -35 -21 1 7 7 -18 8 -3 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 6 10 7 6 10 10 14 15 4 -5 -13 -14 -11 -5 LAND (KM) 1688 1712 1727 1744 1754 1792 1834 1846 1835 1891 1911 1731 1549 1362 1207 1064 929 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.2 19.1 20.3 21.6 22.6 23.2 23.5 23.5 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.8 127.3 127.7 128.2 128.6 129.8 131.1 132.4 133.6 135.1 136.8 138.6 140.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 9 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -14. -22. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -23. -29. -34. -38. -41. -44. -48. -53. -61. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.2 126.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922024 INVEST 07/18/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922024 INVEST 07/18/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##