* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922024 07/17/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 22 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 10 10 13 18 26 33 34 35 38 33 41 37 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 0 -1 -1 -1 -10 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 188 211 225 241 254 255 250 241 238 245 246 247 249 238 227 221 213 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 25.5 25.0 23.6 22.9 22.5 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 123 124 124 117 112 98 91 86 85 86 87 90 93 97 101 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -53.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 55 51 51 49 50 52 52 49 50 49 46 40 35 29 25 24 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 2 2 6 3 5 7 -3 -11 -54 -90 -113 -105 -74 -44 -21 -8 200 MB DIV 15 -1 -16 -19 -2 -20 6 -8 -24 -7 -12 -16 -2 -18 -3 21 1 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 2 4 5 5 10 11 12 8 4 -7 -13 -15 -13 LAND (KM) 1622 1597 1589 1588 1595 1620 1642 1679 1737 1683 1689 1768 1884 1807 1644 1491 1376 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.3 19.2 20.5 21.8 23.3 24.3 24.7 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.5 125.5 125.5 125.7 126.0 127.0 128.1 129.5 130.9 132.2 133.5 135.0 136.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 3 4 7 8 9 10 9 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. -0. -4. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -15. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -23. -27. -32. -35. -38. -42. -46. -54. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 125.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922024 INVEST 07/17/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 4.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922024 INVEST 07/17/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##