* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/31/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 31 28 25 23 21 21 23 24 22 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 31 28 25 23 21 21 23 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 25 24 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 4 3 1 1 3 8 10 14 13 17 15 15 14 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 4 6 7 1 SHEAR DIR 61 68 49 12 320 266 270 252 255 257 261 257 254 258 264 238 240 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 136 135 134 130 129 133 134 135 138 138 136 138 139 138 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 54 54 55 54 56 56 57 57 55 54 53 52 50 51 51 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -2 -17 -26 -27 0 12 22 18 6 -11 -3 6 16 29 39 50 200 MB DIV 28 39 19 16 17 -12 -49 13 26 0 -23 -4 -5 0 14 -26 -31 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 3 4 4 2 0 -1 -7 -8 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 2270 2186 2108 2029 1956 1848 1736 1624 1503 1353 1185 1011 864 774 761 854 957 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.1 135.9 136.6 137.3 137.9 138.9 139.9 140.9 142.0 143.4 145.0 146.7 148.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 8 8 8 7 6 5 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 12 14 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 135.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/31/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.68 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.93 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.5% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 15.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.0% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 6.0% 5.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/31/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##