* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/30/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 29 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 29 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 7 6 4 2 4 5 12 16 17 21 26 26 23 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 1 2 0 -4 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 1 4 7 SHEAR DIR 41 47 34 37 15 308 310 272 272 258 264 256 264 275 273 261 238 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 135 135 134 133 134 131 129 131 134 133 134 138 138 139 138 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 57 56 59 54 56 53 52 48 49 48 48 49 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 6 1 -7 -16 -23 -13 8 25 27 24 -1 -3 -4 12 25 56 74 200 MB DIV 15 16 27 14 1 8 -24 -13 10 4 10 -1 -1 -3 -14 -11 -1 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 6 7 7 3 0 -4 -8 -9 -11 LAND (KM) 2394 2325 2261 2192 2124 2021 1932 1835 1738 1611 1445 1280 1129 1003 951 967 1011 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.9 134.5 135.1 135.7 136.3 137.2 138.0 138.8 139.6 140.7 142.2 143.7 145.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 5 7 7 8 7 6 5 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 8 10 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 133.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/30/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.55 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.96 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.1% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 5.0% 4.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/30/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##