* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/30/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 39 42 42 40 37 36 33 30 28 24 23 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 39 42 42 40 37 36 33 30 28 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 6 5 3 0 3 10 11 16 16 23 25 28 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 -2 -3 0 1 0 -3 -2 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 56 34 46 36 40 9 10 254 260 266 254 249 254 268 274 274 256 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 133 132 132 132 130 129 131 134 133 133 137 135 134 137 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 55 54 57 56 56 56 55 55 55 52 51 50 48 48 48 47 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 16 10 4 -2 -12 -18 0 19 29 20 0 0 1 -3 3 10 47 200 MB DIV 8 21 24 34 35 23 3 -50 -20 -1 0 2 -4 -1 -17 13 -27 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 6 5 4 2 0 -5 -5 -9 LAND (KM) 2434 2360 2286 2212 2143 2026 1923 1830 1738 1611 1450 1285 1115 952 840 812 883 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.5 134.2 134.8 135.5 136.1 137.1 138.0 138.8 139.6 140.7 142.1 143.6 145.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 8 8 8 7 5 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 7 8 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. 29. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 14. 17. 17. 15. 12. 11. 8. 5. 3. -1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 133.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/30/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.55 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.93 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.5% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4.8% 4.9% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/30/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##