* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/30/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 39 47 51 50 48 44 42 39 37 36 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 39 47 51 50 48 44 42 39 37 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 33 35 37 37 36 33 29 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 9 6 3 2 3 2 3 6 13 16 18 19 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 -1 0 -1 0 2 0 -1 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 61 67 54 34 40 10 313 5 67 213 269 256 268 272 285 305 319 SST (C) 27.8 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 135 135 133 134 134 132 129 129 131 134 134 136 141 138 139 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 51 54 54 53 52 50 52 51 50 49 50 51 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 25 18 18 7 -6 -1 13 25 9 3 -9 -16 -18 -17 0 200 MB DIV 26 19 5 12 23 37 49 17 -27 -37 -26 -37 -9 -7 1 -2 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 5 4 3 -1 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2525 2420 2330 2231 2143 2005 1878 1785 1702 1653 1575 1445 1282 1120 955 831 767 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.6 134.5 135.4 136.2 137.5 138.7 139.6 140.3 140.7 141.4 142.6 144.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 7 8 9 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 11 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 22. 26. 25. 23. 19. 17. 14. 13. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 132.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/30/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.60 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.89 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.7% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 7.1% 2.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 7.0% 4.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4.7% 4.2% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: .2% 4.5% 2.6% .1% 0% 2.3% 2.6% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/30/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##