* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/29/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 42 50 56 58 59 58 54 49 46 44 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 42 50 56 58 59 58 54 49 46 44 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 46 51 54 54 51 44 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 6 6 2 5 4 6 4 2 6 12 17 17 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -1 0 2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 69 79 67 31 9 355 62 69 77 100 218 253 262 273 281 307 SST (C) 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 136 135 134 135 134 134 131 129 130 133 135 135 139 139 140 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 55 53 55 51 53 48 52 52 52 50 51 50 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 29 35 35 33 24 18 4 10 8 25 17 5 -9 -26 -31 -19 -10 200 MB DIV 4 32 26 23 25 45 41 42 -12 -22 -26 -14 -32 -8 11 7 -7 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -1 0 -3 0 0 1 1 3 4 4 1 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2511 2466 2365 2276 2182 2019 1888 1801 1729 1680 1636 1544 1396 1232 1045 874 759 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.0 133.1 134.1 135.0 135.9 137.5 138.8 139.7 140.4 140.8 141.2 142.0 143.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 7 5 4 3 2 3 6 8 8 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 25. 31. 33. 34. 33. 29. 24. 21. 19. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 132.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/29/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.77 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.1% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 4.7% 4.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: .1% 5.0% 3.0% .6% 0% 2.8% 2.6% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/29/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##