* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/29/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 47 50 49 47 44 43 40 38 36 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 47 50 49 47 44 43 40 38 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 36 38 38 37 36 35 32 28 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 10 7 4 1 2 3 3 8 8 11 10 13 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 1 2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 74 63 62 72 64 58 175 223 228 267 242 240 240 253 261 277 278 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 136 135 135 133 133 131 130 131 130 132 133 132 135 138 139 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 58 57 59 57 56 55 54 52 53 53 53 50 48 46 47 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 25 31 32 27 12 6 -2 2 12 26 25 10 -1 -8 -9 1 200 MB DIV -15 -1 23 24 14 20 28 29 -2 -49 -50 11 26 -8 -13 -4 -10 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 1 0 1 1 2 3 3 1 0 -4 LAND (KM) 2422 2503 2476 2371 2276 2075 1927 1790 1697 1609 1551 1498 1401 1276 1148 1030 954 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.7 132.0 133.0 134.0 134.9 136.7 138.1 139.3 140.2 141.0 141.5 142.0 142.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 3 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 16. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. 31. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 19. 22. 25. 24. 22. 19. 18. 15. 13. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 130.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/29/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.94 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.7% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4.6% 4.9% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/29/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##