* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/29/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 45 52 56 58 59 57 53 49 46 41 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 45 52 56 58 59 57 53 49 46 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 40 45 48 51 50 47 42 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 12 11 11 9 4 0 4 3 4 4 6 11 17 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -2 1 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 1 0 2 4 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 81 79 64 70 86 50 73 171 149 100 310 331 268 287 271 274 282 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 140 136 134 135 134 131 130 129 130 131 133 135 135 136 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 59 59 55 53 50 53 48 51 51 51 50 52 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 10 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 17 18 22 24 30 24 14 0 6 12 24 32 29 3 -6 -19 -8 200 MB DIV -23 -20 -5 28 31 29 40 55 34 -10 -33 -10 16 -10 -28 -26 -14 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 3 3 4 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2377 2462 2543 2498 2393 2201 2024 1873 1751 1688 1644 1625 1586 1511 1396 1304 1241 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.5 130.8 132.0 133.0 134.0 135.8 137.4 138.8 139.9 140.5 140.9 141.1 141.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 9 7 7 4 2 1 1 3 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 17. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. 33. 32. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 20. 27. 31. 33. 34. 32. 28. 24. 21. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 129.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/29/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.61 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.97 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 14.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.4% 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 4.6% 5.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/29/24 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING