* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/29/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 51 55 59 59 58 53 49 45 41 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 51 55 59 59 58 53 49 45 41 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 35 39 43 48 51 51 48 41 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 12 14 13 9 7 3 1 3 4 4 8 13 14 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -2 0 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 1 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 69 69 61 55 71 67 55 41 15 117 112 215 251 253 267 251 273 SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 144 144 143 142 134 134 133 132 131 129 129 131 133 136 134 137 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 58 60 57 60 58 57 57 55 54 53 51 51 51 52 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 11 11 12 10 10 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 2 16 15 11 12 18 8 1 -7 5 15 37 39 17 -5 -7 -17 200 MB DIV -30 -31 -21 -12 4 21 46 40 51 37 -28 -14 21 9 -2 -10 -14 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 3 4 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 2275 2378 2449 2521 2552 2359 2177 2020 1897 1800 1741 1707 1658 1567 1432 1275 1139 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.2 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.0 129.4 130.5 131.6 132.5 134.3 135.9 137.3 138.4 139.3 139.8 140.2 140.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 4 4 2 2 3 5 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 24. 29. 32. 33. 34. 34. 34. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. 9. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 34. 33. 28. 24. 20. 16. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 128.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/29/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.57 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.07 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.96 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 4.8% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/29/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##