* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/28/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 32 35 40 44 44 42 42 38 34 29 27 27 24 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 32 35 40 44 44 42 42 38 34 29 27 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 34 36 36 34 32 28 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 13 12 14 9 7 0 4 6 6 13 13 16 13 10 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -5 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -3 0 -2 0 2 3 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 61 65 63 55 51 81 32 268 277 243 211 213 237 251 291 261 246 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 146 144 144 137 135 133 132 130 130 128 129 131 133 132 136 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 55 58 61 60 59 63 59 59 54 57 53 53 48 46 44 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 13 12 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -9 0 9 9 4 8 11 0 -13 -1 14 29 32 31 11 12 13 200 MB DIV -23 -29 -19 -13 -3 6 22 22 46 40 -3 4 10 -7 -18 -9 -9 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 0 0 3 3 2 2 4 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 2194 2291 2369 2451 2507 2469 2262 2066 1900 1759 1654 1601 1571 1524 1415 1280 1154 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.6 14.9 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.5 128.0 129.1 130.3 131.3 133.2 135.0 136.7 138.1 139.3 140.1 140.5 140.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 2 3 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 25. 30. 33. 35. 35. 34. 34. 33. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 19. 19. 17. 17. 13. 9. 4. 2. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 126.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/28/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.55 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.08 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.95 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.5% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 5.3% 5.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% SDCON: .1% 5.2% 2.6% 0% 0% 2.6% 3.1% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/28/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##