* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/28/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 31 34 39 45 45 43 43 40 35 29 25 21 18 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 31 34 39 45 45 43 43 40 35 29 25 21 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 32 34 34 34 32 28 24 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 11 11 12 5 1 3 5 9 14 19 20 28 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 -2 -4 -1 -1 -2 -6 -3 -3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 60 62 69 67 63 61 82 360 277 215 188 194 225 240 248 255 233 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 146 145 143 138 134 135 135 132 130 130 130 131 130 130 132 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 58 58 59 59 59 57 57 56 53 52 49 46 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 0 11 12 8 15 6 -2 -8 8 31 39 30 30 33 24 200 MB DIV 13 8 -29 -15 -5 21 38 25 8 14 11 15 -18 4 -12 11 11 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 1 2 3 3 2 3 1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -6 -9 LAND (KM) 2031 2098 2173 2245 2309 2425 2441 2252 2085 1933 1830 1768 1734 1700 1668 1651 1644 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.8 126.2 127.4 128.5 129.5 131.4 133.1 134.8 136.3 137.6 138.5 139.0 139.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 10 10 8 9 9 7 6 4 2 1 2 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. 34. 33. 32. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 20. 18. 18. 15. 10. 4. -0. -4. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 124.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/28/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.50 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.89 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.5% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 5.1% 5.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0% 4.2% 2.5% 0% 0% 2.5% 3.1% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/28/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##