* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/28/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 45 49 50 53 52 51 46 41 36 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 45 49 50 53 52 51 46 41 36 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 36 40 43 44 44 40 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 18 18 13 13 10 5 4 5 9 4 9 16 15 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 3 -1 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 52 52 55 65 65 49 78 90 124 119 151 145 175 203 224 233 236 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 149 147 144 139 135 135 134 133 132 133 132 133 133 134 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 58 60 59 61 59 61 58 60 55 57 56 59 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -8 -11 -7 4 5 12 15 8 2 6 15 35 47 30 11 19 200 MB DIV 59 30 4 -16 -23 1 31 29 29 55 85 37 0 -9 2 2 31 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 2 1 2 4 4 2 1 0 -1 -4 -2 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1953 2034 2083 2130 2182 2300 2397 2480 2362 2232 2146 2085 2054 2044 2019 2025 2074 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.5 12.8 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.9 124.2 125.3 126.3 127.2 129.0 130.7 132.3 133.8 135.0 135.9 136.6 137.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 2 2 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 25. 30. 33. 36. 37. 37. 37. 35. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 24. 25. 28. 27. 26. 21. 16. 11. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 122.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/28/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.78 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.33 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.94 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 4.6% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/28/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##