* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/27/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 42 48 53 56 57 58 57 53 51 46 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 42 48 53 56 57 58 57 53 51 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 43 47 52 57 59 59 54 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 12 19 16 15 11 8 5 5 5 4 8 10 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -1 -7 -5 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 11 23 41 51 58 67 35 34 38 73 34 112 179 202 208 220 239 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 150 150 145 142 141 135 134 135 134 134 134 134 133 133 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 59 57 59 55 58 56 55 54 55 53 53 49 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 7 2 4 8 10 15 19 8 0 2 4 41 44 35 15 200 MB DIV 115 124 86 68 38 -4 -24 -13 23 31 -19 -1 -48 -37 2 4 -31 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -8 -3 0 -1 1 2 5 3 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1818 1938 2040 2111 2175 2299 2432 2543 2410 2271 2157 2078 2010 1966 1946 1971 2026 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.9 122.7 124.3 125.7 126.8 128.7 130.5 132.2 133.7 135.0 136.1 136.9 137.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 13 10 9 9 8 7 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 13 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 20. 27. 33. 36. 39. 40. 41. 40. 39. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 32. 33. 32. 28. 26. 21. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 120.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/27/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.48 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.72 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.4% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.1% 4.7% 0.2% 0.1% 5.4% 5.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: .1% 4.0% 2.8% .1% 0% 2.7% 2.5% .7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/27/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##