* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/27/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 43 50 56 58 58 56 54 50 46 41 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 43 50 56 58 58 56 54 50 46 41 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 25 28 31 36 41 47 51 53 53 50 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 10 10 14 11 10 2 4 4 3 7 8 15 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 3 -2 -6 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 13 1 30 71 64 81 61 67 48 127 192 209 204 226 231 239 251 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 148 146 144 143 140 134 136 136 134 134 133 132 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 61 58 56 57 59 56 58 58 58 55 53 51 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 7 9 8 13 20 23 23 16 9 4 13 33 36 35 25 200 MB DIV 97 125 128 98 70 10 -24 -29 0 20 33 27 9 -22 -48 -13 4 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -11 -2 0 1 2 3 2 2 1 1 0 2 3 3 8 LAND (KM) 1697 1794 1898 1994 2064 2197 2343 2466 2461 2273 2129 2021 1942 1908 1869 1830 1773 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.0 120.8 122.5 124.0 125.4 127.6 129.5 131.4 133.1 134.8 136.2 137.2 137.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 14 13 10 9 9 9 7 6 4 2 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 12 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 20. 28. 33. 37. 40. 41. 41. 41. 39. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 25. 31. 33. 33. 31. 29. 25. 21. 16. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 119.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/27/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.67 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.75 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 16.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.6% 2.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.7% 5.4% 0.5% 0.1% 5.8% 5.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .1% 4.3% 2.7% .2% 0% 2.9% 2.8% .2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/27/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##