* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 10/27/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 40 48 57 64 67 66 64 61 57 52 48 45 42 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 40 48 57 64 67 66 64 61 57 52 48 45 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 47 54 60 64 65 64 60 55 49 43 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 4 4 10 10 7 5 4 5 8 15 18 20 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 2 -2 -5 -2 -1 -2 -1 1 -4 -5 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 42 49 30 54 79 48 59 10 7 300 264 253 240 277 287 280 280 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.1 27.4 27.3 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 151 148 146 145 142 135 138 136 132 133 133 133 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 62 59 55 56 54 57 55 54 50 54 50 51 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -1 4 11 15 11 15 18 19 20 7 5 8 6 19 22 10 200 MB DIV 86 77 107 158 128 59 -9 -30 -36 -5 41 13 -5 -57 -58 -38 -50 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -4 -5 -3 0 0 3 3 4 4 7 6 5 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1587 1648 1748 1851 1963 2144 2316 2474 2435 2199 2007 1831 1705 1602 1528 1445 1299 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.6 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.0 118.8 120.5 122.2 123.8 126.6 129.0 131.3 133.4 135.5 137.2 138.7 139.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 16 15 12 11 11 11 10 8 7 5 4 4 5 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 14 13 12 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 20. 28. 33. 37. 39. 40. 40. 39. 37. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 27. 34. 37. 36. 34. 31. 27. 22. 18. 15. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.3 117.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 10/27/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.71 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.74 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 19.6% 15.8% 13.6% 0.0% 21.0% 18.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 16.8% 10.8% 6.5% 0.7% 2.9% 0.5% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 12.4% 9.1% 6.8% 0.2% 8.0% 6.4% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 10/27/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##