* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 08/22/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 38 42 46 49 46 41 39 38 36 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 38 42 46 49 46 41 39 38 36 37 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 31 32 34 35 34 31 29 27 25 24 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 17 10 10 11 4 9 12 17 18 21 24 28 30 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -6 -7 -5 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 10 12 21 21 19 16 323 304 278 280 274 268 267 252 253 264 272 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.7 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.5 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 134 131 135 135 134 131 127 128 133 134 136 139 140 141 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 6 5 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 62 61 58 55 52 49 47 46 44 41 35 36 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 18 17 18 17 18 18 17 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 43 36 23 23 27 26 27 28 27 20 26 23 34 22 22 13 3 200 MB DIV 18 29 36 45 21 5 11 21 25 23 34 24 21 9 -17 -16 -18 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 3 5 7 5 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1756 1630 1504 1389 1275 1010 754 476 264 124 149 271 268 225 286 405 558 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 12 13 12 10 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 7 4 2 3 4 9 6 3 6 19 14 14 13 13 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 22. 22. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 16. 11. 9. 8. 6. 7. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 138.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 08/22/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.64 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.96 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.1% 11.2% 8.9% 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.8% 4.0% 3.1% 0.1% 5.2% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 25.0% SDCON: 1.5% 5.4% 3.0% 2.0% 0% 3.6% 2.6% 12.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 08/22/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##