* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 08/22/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 40 44 48 49 48 44 41 37 37 35 34 33 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 40 44 48 49 48 44 41 37 37 35 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 33 34 34 33 30 28 25 24 23 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 15 15 9 10 5 7 8 15 20 24 27 31 35 35 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -5 -6 -3 -3 -1 0 -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 7 10 16 22 25 2 5 315 283 268 275 275 275 263 258 264 264 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.9 27.1 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 138 133 136 133 134 131 129 127 133 134 137 138 140 142 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 61 61 56 54 50 46 45 44 45 40 37 37 37 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 13 12 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 42 48 39 30 30 32 28 35 28 15 21 21 26 30 26 26 16 200 MB DIV 28 28 38 39 32 2 4 24 28 12 2 2 20 19 9 -6 8 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -1 0 -1 -3 0 -1 5 7 10 2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1886 1751 1616 1494 1372 1119 870 605 360 176 97 247 256 239 316 434 588 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 6 9 5 4 2 5 7 3 4 21 15 13 12 13 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 23. 24. 23. 23. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 19. 18. 14. 11. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 137.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 08/22/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.61 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.92 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 17.8% 12.9% 10.2% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.7% 4.5% 3.5% 0.1% 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% SDCON: 1.8% 5.8% 3.2% 2.2% 0% 3.8% 1.5% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 08/22/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##