* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 08/21/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 36 40 47 52 56 55 52 47 43 41 41 41 39 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 34 36 40 47 52 56 55 52 47 43 41 41 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 34 37 39 41 42 39 35 33 32 32 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 9 12 11 5 7 2 6 12 19 22 25 25 31 34 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -4 -1 -2 0 -3 -2 -4 -3 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 358 7 12 18 20 24 3 231 255 260 269 273 267 264 269 264 249 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.5 26.5 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 140 138 138 130 132 131 133 129 129 134 134 137 141 140 142 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 62 63 62 58 57 54 49 46 44 41 41 36 36 33 34 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 16 17 19 19 20 20 20 19 18 15 12 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 48 44 58 47 40 43 42 51 40 43 32 38 38 40 29 34 24 200 MB DIV 27 31 30 50 55 32 25 20 15 25 23 19 8 8 6 4 11 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -6 -4 -1 -5 0 0 5 9 8 1 1 -3 -5 -6 0 LAND (KM) 2041 1893 1746 1611 1477 1236 960 687 430 194 48 212 257 264 382 547 703 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 14 8 6 14 2 2 1 7 4 5 21 15 13 12 14 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 6. 10. 17. 22. 26. 25. 22. 17. 13. 11. 11. 11. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 136.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 08/21/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.68 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.87 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 13.6% 11.5% 9.5% 0.0% 16.1% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.8% 3.9% 3.2% 0.0% 5.4% 4.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 8.0% SDCON: 1.6% 4.9% 2.9% 2.1% 0% 3.2% 3.9% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 08/21/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##