* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 08/21/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 42 50 54 61 60 59 55 50 48 48 46 44 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 42 50 54 61 60 59 55 50 48 48 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 40 43 44 42 40 37 35 36 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 14 11 12 8 11 4 5 10 16 19 23 23 26 31 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -4 -5 0 -3 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 11 2 11 8 16 16 5 27 289 260 266 272 267 268 267 274 263 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 26.9 27.0 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 143 142 140 139 133 134 130 131 131 129 132 134 136 138 141 143 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 61 63 58 54 52 47 44 42 44 41 40 35 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 17 19 19 21 20 22 20 20 18 14 14 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 51 43 43 57 46 39 39 34 45 32 23 31 32 31 31 33 36 200 MB DIV 30 37 36 33 53 54 20 22 37 34 19 29 9 33 27 7 -4 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -9 -7 -3 -1 -3 1 1 6 7 4 0 3 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 2189 2051 1914 1773 1633 1365 1122 876 605 347 125 46 181 200 234 372 545 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 13 13 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 22 15 8 6 8 4 1 3 6 2 8 27 16 13 13 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 24. 24. 23. 24. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 11. 8. 7. 4. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 24. 31. 30. 29. 25. 20. 18. 18. 17. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 134.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 08/21/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.89 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 16.6% 12.8% 10.4% 0.0% 17.5% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.0% 4.4% 3.5% 0.0% 5.8% 5.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 9.0% SDCON: 1.8% 6.0% 3.7% 2.2% 0% 3.9% 5.2% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 08/21/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##