* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 08/21/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 36 41 47 54 57 60 59 56 52 49 49 50 49 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 36 41 47 54 57 60 59 56 52 48 49 50 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 38 40 42 43 43 41 39 37 37 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 13 12 12 6 11 1 6 11 14 18 20 21 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 -3 -2 -5 -1 -1 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 60 17 2 11 4 2 1 24 278 290 271 274 275 252 252 259 257 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.4 26.9 27.3 26.6 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 140 140 139 134 138 130 132 129 127 132 134 136 138 142 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 62 63 60 59 56 49 47 47 47 43 39 39 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 15 17 19 20 21 20 22 20 19 17 15 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 49 46 45 46 57 40 42 39 48 30 21 21 34 20 32 34 37 200 MB DIV 49 35 28 29 28 56 32 26 18 33 19 21 5 9 32 21 19 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -6 -7 -6 -2 -4 1 2 1 7 5 0 0 -1 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 2328 2206 2084 1950 1817 1558 1321 1047 787 549 328 110 87 190 189 155 303 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 7 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 14 29 17 9 7 5 6 1 4 4 1 10 27 19 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. 24. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 24. 27. 30. 29. 26. 22. 19. 19. 20. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 133.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 08/21/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.69 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.08 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.90 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 11.2% 10.4% 8.7% 0.0% 14.7% 14.6% 11.6% Logistic: 0.6% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.0% 3.8% 3.0% 0.1% 5.0% 4.9% 3.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 6.0% SDCON: 1.6% 6.5% 3.9% 2.5% .5% 4.5% 3.9% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 08/21/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##