* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 08/21/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 51 59 62 64 64 62 59 52 51 54 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 51 59 62 64 64 62 59 52 51 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 37 40 44 47 50 51 51 50 47 43 42 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 11 13 11 10 5 9 6 4 5 8 10 13 19 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -3 -5 -3 -3 -5 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 62 49 23 27 24 3 31 360 4 318 309 267 290 259 243 254 271 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 26.7 27.2 26.6 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.4 26.9 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 141 139 137 137 131 136 129 131 130 127 127 133 138 138 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 62 61 61 56 54 51 45 46 47 45 42 36 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 20 21 24 23 23 24 23 21 16 14 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 47 51 53 49 46 47 43 44 46 42 33 19 32 38 32 30 17 200 MB DIV 33 40 32 59 56 34 55 28 17 30 35 47 28 6 27 9 4 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -4 -4 -4 -1 -3 1 2 3 2 3 3 3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2342 2271 2149 2031 1913 1681 1443 1226 993 787 593 390 182 15 134 143 104 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 25 23 15 6 16 3 4 1 3 6 2 4 17 21 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 24. 24. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 7. 1. -1. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 29. 32. 34. 34. 32. 29. 22. 21. 24. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 132.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 08/21/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.68 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.95 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 18.1% 14.5% 12.0% 0.0% 19.3% 18.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.3% 4.9% 4.0% 0.0% 6.5% 6.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 15.0% SDCON: 2.0% 7.1% 4.4% 3.0% .5% 5.2% 4.5% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 08/21/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##