* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 08/20/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 50 55 58 61 61 59 58 54 51 51 50 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 50 55 58 61 61 59 58 54 51 51 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 37 40 43 44 45 47 48 47 46 44 41 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 12 15 11 10 6 12 5 9 9 10 14 17 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 -4 -4 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 80 66 38 39 27 8 7 11 327 318 288 274 262 268 269 259 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.5 26.8 27.4 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.9 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 145 141 141 139 132 138 132 131 131 127 127 133 136 136 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 66 63 62 59 58 54 49 42 41 40 40 36 36 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 19 20 20 20 21 21 20 19 18 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 50 54 51 60 40 45 31 39 26 21 18 37 39 37 25 200 MB DIV 28 40 40 54 65 70 41 7 -1 -13 7 24 22 4 20 27 19 700-850 TADV -3 1 0 -2 -3 -8 -2 -4 -1 0 0 3 5 4 6 2 3 LAND (KM) 2348 2345 2254 2135 2015 1766 1528 1317 1084 859 650 437 237 52 163 205 179 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 12 30 24 8 8 5 6 2 2 6 2 1 20 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 31. 29. 28. 24. 21. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 132.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 08/20/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.56 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.97 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.79 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 14.2% 12.1% 10.1% 0.0% 18.1% 16.9% 12.5% Logistic: 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.1% 4.2% 3.4% 0.0% 6.1% 5.7% 4.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 13.0% SDCON: 1.7% 5.5% 4.1% 2.7% .5% 5.0% 4.3% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 08/20/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##