* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 08/20/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 40 47 55 62 67 67 69 66 62 59 57 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 40 47 55 62 67 67 69 66 62 59 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 28 30 33 36 38 41 44 46 47 47 45 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 9 10 11 7 4 7 2 6 3 7 6 17 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 -5 -2 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 50 51 61 52 32 25 6 9 341 347 313 275 279 252 265 241 239 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 142 143 144 140 138 133 133 133 132 131 127 125 127 130 134 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 65 66 64 61 56 52 46 43 41 39 39 37 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 15 17 20 21 23 23 25 24 25 24 21 19 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 57 53 47 50 55 55 59 52 51 45 48 42 41 35 37 34 32 200 MB DIV 58 27 40 41 39 60 44 65 38 35 25 28 15 12 5 14 20 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 -1 -3 -6 -4 0 -2 1 0 4 6 7 5 6 1 LAND (KM) 2347 2371 2343 2254 2148 1913 1657 1400 1158 909 687 472 297 146 48 152 168 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.0 132.6 133.4 134.2 135.2 137.3 139.6 141.9 144.2 146.6 148.8 150.9 152.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 11 12 11 11 9 9 8 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 12 29 15 5 13 4 3 3 7 4 1 4 16 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 29. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 11. 13. 9. 6. 3. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 22. 30. 37. 42. 42. 44. 41. 37. 34. 32. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 132.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 08/20/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.97 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.3% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 5.3% 5.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% 24.0% SDCON: 0% 6.1% 3.3% .5% 0% 5.1% 4.7% 12.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 08/20/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##