* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 08/20/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 45 52 59 63 67 67 68 66 62 58 56 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 37 45 52 59 63 67 67 68 66 62 58 56 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 39 42 45 47 49 49 48 46 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 12 8 6 14 9 6 4 7 5 7 6 13 16 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 2 3 2 -2 -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 65 43 43 56 63 32 33 11 337 355 295 287 282 270 258 262 246 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.6 26.5 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.5 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 144 146 145 142 138 130 129 125 126 126 124 128 130 132 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 64 65 64 63 59 55 52 47 44 43 43 43 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 18 20 20 20 20 22 22 22 21 20 18 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR 77 68 63 60 71 66 79 55 52 45 45 39 37 35 34 35 28 200 MB DIV 64 73 59 73 54 55 61 31 23 14 18 13 7 22 12 8 33 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 0 -1 -4 -8 0 -1 0 -1 2 3 6 4 4 0 LAND (KM) 2339 2370 2385 2292 2193 1960 1708 1443 1195 956 711 475 264 147 227 380 378 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.7 132.3 133.1 133.9 134.8 136.9 139.2 141.6 143.9 146.2 148.6 151.0 153.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 9 11 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 11 20 23 8 16 2 1 0 1 1 2 7 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. 30. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 10. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 27. 34. 38. 42. 42. 43. 41. 37. 33. 31. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 131.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 08/20/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.53 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.8% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 7.7% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.5% 5.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.3% 6.1% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 08/20/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##