* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 07/04/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 28 26 23 20 18 16 16 15 16 16 16 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 28 26 23 20 18 16 16 15 16 16 16 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 11 9 8 13 7 9 13 11 12 10 11 13 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 1 -1 -4 4 -1 0 -1 -2 1 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 85 101 88 90 110 84 113 117 130 139 153 153 139 147 158 161 202 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.4 24.5 23.3 23.1 23.6 24.5 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 143 137 107 94 91 96 105 111 113 115 115 116 119 122 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 4 3 1 1 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 76 71 67 65 65 57 58 51 54 46 48 42 41 35 34 30 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 19 26 32 34 29 29 2 4 -12 -1 -12 8 8 12 5 2 200 MB DIV -18 -30 -33 -16 -3 16 -11 -35 -20 -6 -17 -39 -14 -22 -21 -14 -4 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 1 9 3 4 -4 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 5 9 LAND (KM) 260 226 237 276 327 438 403 413 469 568 699 840 977 1136 1325 1543 1797 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.1 19.7 19.0 18.5 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.9 106.6 107.3 108.1 109.8 111.3 112.5 113.4 114.3 115.3 116.6 118.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 5 7 7 9 10 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 13 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 105.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 07/04/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.56 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.06 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.9% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 5.3% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 3.9% 3.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .4% 2.6% 1.7% .2% 0% 1.9% 1.7% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 07/04/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##