* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 07/04/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 28 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 28 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 27 26 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 8 13 9 17 10 12 8 10 7 8 7 11 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 0 -5 -3 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 5 3 4 2 SHEAR DIR 114 116 128 91 100 120 87 109 101 131 148 174 193 210 193 209 200 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 26.1 23.3 23.0 22.9 23.3 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.7 23.2 24.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 144 144 143 124 94 90 88 92 100 102 104 110 95 104 108 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 81 78 72 68 67 62 59 57 54 51 47 43 38 36 31 27 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 31 21 38 42 31 37 16 6 -10 -2 -7 4 7 -3 0 0 200 MB DIV 2 -10 -30 -26 -15 14 21 -42 -15 -19 -9 -26 -21 -13 -15 -22 -12 700-850 TADV -4 1 0 0 8 5 4 -1 0 -1 3 1 3 3 6 9 17 LAND (KM) 271 226 197 210 251 365 375 354 385 441 537 667 779 939 1098 1297 1554 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.6 20.6 20.3 19.9 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.3 105.9 106.6 107.3 108.9 110.6 111.8 112.8 113.5 114.4 115.8 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 6 8 8 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 15 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.3 104.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 07/04/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.62 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.08 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 14.9% 6.1% 3.1% 1.0% 3.2% 0.2% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 10.0% 5.6% 1.0% 0.3% 5.9% 4.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: .7% 5.5% 3.3% .5% .1% 2.9% 2.2% .6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 07/04/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##