* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 07/04/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 30 30 28 25 21 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 30 30 28 25 21 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 28 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 8 6 12 12 17 9 11 12 11 14 9 12 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -1 2 2 -5 -5 0 -3 -2 -3 -3 2 2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 79 92 118 131 104 107 94 108 89 124 133 147 170 180 170 172 183 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.0 24.5 23.7 23.5 24.0 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.8 24.2 23.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 147 145 143 133 107 98 95 100 102 103 104 110 104 100 114 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 6 3 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 82 81 77 72 68 67 58 59 51 54 46 46 40 38 33 30 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 24 15 20 31 26 28 2 3 -14 -8 -15 6 -1 5 -2 200 MB DIV 8 -12 -31 -37 -32 -5 23 -10 -37 -34 10 -18 -23 -15 -24 -16 -14 700-850 TADV -4 -4 0 0 0 6 3 4 -3 1 0 2 2 4 4 6 11 LAND (KM) 367 311 280 261 276 374 470 435 465 507 573 664 749 853 1004 1166 1381 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.3 18.7 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.0 19.7 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.0 105.6 106.2 106.9 108.5 110.1 111.6 112.9 113.8 114.6 115.5 116.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 5 7 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 18 17 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. -0. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 104.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 07/04/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.06 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.9% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 27.2% 9.5% 5.4% 2.6% 4.7% 1.8% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 15.3% 7.3% 1.8% 0.9% 6.6% 5.4% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: .7% 8.1% 3.6% .9% .4% 3.3% 2.7% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 07/04/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##