* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912024 07/03/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 22 22 23 24 26 27 26 24 24 24 24 23 21 20 19 V (KT) LAND 20 22 22 22 23 24 26 27 26 24 24 24 24 23 21 20 19 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 16 14 10 10 18 12 14 9 12 13 13 11 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -4 -2 5 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 0 -3 0 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 64 81 97 114 141 105 105 100 113 97 105 132 134 145 160 164 193 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.0 26.2 25.6 25.7 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 24.7 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 151 148 148 144 133 125 118 119 112 112 113 113 110 110 111 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 2 0 1 0 1 2 3 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 83 83 81 78 72 67 60 55 52 49 47 45 40 37 34 30 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 21 14 17 17 35 31 30 15 20 3 -2 -7 -5 12 10 7 200 MB DIV 14 14 -17 -36 -31 -10 17 18 -51 -47 22 18 -35 -24 -9 -17 -15 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 0 0 2 3 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 4 LAND (KM) 460 412 355 326 329 375 494 583 594 653 753 860 975 1090 1225 1359 1543 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.3 18.7 18.7 18.5 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.5 104.9 105.4 106.0 107.6 109.3 111.2 112.9 114.4 115.7 116.9 118.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 10 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 19 19 22 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 104.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912024 INVEST 07/03/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 9.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 1.8% 3.0% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 3.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% 4.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912024 INVEST 07/03/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##